Quinonez vs Smolka: A fight slated to happen 2 weeks ago, where I was super high on Smolka to get a victory here. But after watching the weigh ins, Smolka weighed in at almost 5 pounds over the limit. Thats terrible and draws some major red flags. Leads me to question where his head is at, as once a contender in the flyweight division, now struggling to make 135. Smolka is gonna have to make the cut again in just 2 weeks and there is no reason not to believe he is gonna struggle again. On the flip side, Jose "El Tecco" Quinonez hasn't been impressive in the UFC after getting run over by the Sugar Show earlier in the year. But I know for fact Jose was not happy about Smolka missing weight leading to this fight to get moved, to me this could be used as a fuel for motivation. I look for Jose to skate around by using good foot work and take advantage of Smolka's poor takedowns to win a decision.
Wilson's pick: Quinonez by DEC
Benitez vs Jaynes: A potential fight of the night which is gonna be a complete barn burner. Javier Mendez's pupil Benitez as we always hear him reference that he kicks harder than Luke Rockhold and Khabib takes on the infamous parlay buster Justin Jaynes. Gabriel Benitez stands straight up and is the much more technical striker here. Benitez fought a great fight vs a top prospect in Omar Morales and even before that in the Sodiq Yusuff he was able to score a knockdown before eventually getting finished in the first. With Justin Jaynes he broke on the scene by scoring a quick knockout as he bum rushed Frank Camacho. He took that fight on short notice as he was a +350 dog and shocked everyone. Jaynes is a wrestler who falls in love with his hands as he brings a Chuck Lidell style to the ring. I expect Gabriel to stay at bay and not get caught by one of those bombs by Jaynes and showcase a much more cleaner striking display to wear on Mr. Guitar Hero.
Wilson's pick: Benitez by 3rd round TKO
Jackson vs Topuria: Undefeated Ilia Topuria takes on his biggest test in Damon Jackson. Damon Jackson we just saw pull off an epic upset vs Bektic as he was a +300 dog. But we gotta look into that fight a little deeper. Jackson was struggling on the feet as Bektic dropped him for a second while also was getting takedown repeatedly, he was down 2 rounds to none before pulling off a Hail Mary submission. But Damon Jackson does something that gives me hopes he could get lucky again. Immediately fishes for the submission attempt once he is taken down. Will take submission over position as he always is looking to grab the neck. If Topuria shoots in with a sloppy takedown it could be bad news. Ilia can easily keep this fight standing and piece up Damon Jackson but he won't. I think he is gonna rely on his grappling like he did vs Zalal. I hope Topuria doesn't pull a Bektic.
Wilson's pick: Topuria by DEC
Flick vs Durden: We just saw Flick pull off an impressive win vs Nate Smith on the contender series to earn a UFC contract. A scramble wrestler who relies heavily on the submissions brings life to the Flyweight division as he reminds me of a Tim Elliot. But we see Jimmy gets hit a lot and that brings some concern vs the wrestle boxer in Cody Durden. The former freestyle wrestler Cody Durden is going to bring that grappling heavy approach as we are going to see a test of cardio. I see this fight playing out mostly on the mat. Mostly Jimmy being on his back and maybe Durden gasses and gives up his neck to a dangerous Jimmy Flick. This pick is a lean at best.
Wilson's pick: Flick by 2nd round Sub
Wiman vs. Leavitt: Talk about a cupcake fight for Leavitt. I didn't even know Matt Wiman was still alive as he took 5 years off and was fed to the wolves in his return vs Luis Pena and looked awful. Was then booked vs Joe Solecki and didn't look any better. Leavitt is another undefeated fighter as he hunts heavy for submissions. Has a 17 second heel hook, thats super impressive. If Pena was able to dominate in the grappling vs Wiman, I don't see why the submission wizard Leavitt can't do the same. Only concern Wiman has never been submitted in his career. Wiman is 37 year old and this screams feeder fight for Leavitt. UFC wants to see their contender series alum do well.
Wilson's pick: Leavitt by 1st round Sub
Villante vs Collier: Man why did the UFC put this fight together. Both don't belong in the UFC anymore. Villante has to stop eating and Collier has to also. Villante is a known quitter and lost to Maurice Green by getting hugged. Villante should get the win,, I think? Wouldn't bank on it though. Fight gives off a Parker Porter vibe and I don't think anyone should put money on this.
Wilson's pick: Collier by DEC
Evloev vs Landwehr: The battle of M-1 global makes it way over to UFC. The Former Featherweight champ in Landwehr, while Evloev was the former Bantamweight champ in that promotion. We know every time Nate the Train steps in the ring it's going to be crazy, he is basically a wild man. Brings the chaos early and often as he is a pressure fighter. But Evloev is better everywhere reason why he is the biggest favorite on the card at -500. I was really impressed on how he was able to fight adversity in the Mike Grundy fight and Evloev should have no problem of weathering the early storm of Nate and coasting to an easy decision win.
Wilson's pick: Evloev by DEC
Dolidze vs Allan: Roman Dolidze is an undefeated powerhouse fighting out of Xtreme Couture and its safe to say nobody wants to fight this man. Total of 7 cancelled bouts and when he showed up over the summer vs Khadis Ibragimov, he obliterated him with a knee right on the button. You had to feel bad for Khadis because he had no clue where he was after the fact. Right now he is training out of Xtreme Couture with Francis Ngannou and Tyrone Spong; absolute killers and guys who fight at heavyweight. John Allan is a Chute Boxer, who is coming off a win vs Mike Rodriguez but was ruled a No Contest due to him testing positive to PEDs. I want to see what kind of shape Allan is in following his USADA suspension but I don't see anywhere Allan is better than Dolidze in. As long as Roman doesn't get too wild to where he gets caught by an elbow he should get the job done here. Fighters out of the country Georgia are taking over this year.
Wilson's pick: Dolidze by 1st round KO
Talia Santos vs Montana De La Rosa: Talia Santos really showed up in her last fight vs Molly "Meatball" McCann as she swelled her eye completely shut. A great bounce back victory as she lost a head scratcher vs Maria Borella. You can play MMA math here as De La Rosa's last win was over Borella but you gotta look at the styles of this fight. De La Rosa is a submission specialist but I feel she is going to struggle getting the takedowns vs Santos. And if this fight stays on the feet, Talia Santos has the big advantage. Santos showed some impressive striking vs Molly McCann. And I don't like that Montana De La Rosa wasn't able to train at Team Elevation for this camp.
Wilson's pick: Santos by DEC
OSP vs Jamahal Hill: Really looking forward to this Co-Main event as we see OSP taking on the Contender Series Alum Jamahal Hill. OSP is coming off a victory where he flat lined Alonzo Menifield. OSP tends to struggle vs the top 15 but always runs through the up and coming prospects. But Jamahal Hill is a southpaw and OSP doesn't face well against southpaws. Jamahal Hill pushes a crazy pace and never seems to get tired. Hill has a power left hand while being a volume striker, where as OSP just looks for that one shot. Its hard to predict what OSP shows up, as he shit the bed vs Ben Rothwell. Will OSP continue his trend as being the prospect killer? I don't think so.
Wilson's pick: Hill by DEC
Hermansson vs Vettori: It's been a constant change of opponents for the Joker as he was slated to face Darren Till(Till injury), then Kevin Holland(Covid-19), now finally matched up against Marvin Vettori. But the one thing I don't understand is why Hermansson is the betting underdog here. Besides Karl Roberson I don't see an impressive win on Vettori's record, he holds a draw vs Omari Akhmedov(Who lost to Chris Weidman recently). Yes I know everyone brings up how he went to a split decision with the Last Stylebender. But that was a way different Israel. And for Hermansson he is following up an impressive quick submission victory over Kelvin Gastelum. Jack's kryptonite are guys who can rush him and overpower him, examples being Thiago Santos and Jared Cannonier. I don't see that kind of power from Vettori as I think he is going to get caught in something on the mat. This is a huge step up in competition for Marvin Vettori and I don't believe he is ready for it.
Wilson's pick: Hermansson by 2nd round SUB